Zathrus~SPARTA~ Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 Hello all, I doubt many of you have really heard much about Hurricane Patricia. But essentially at 10pm on Wed. 10/21/2015 this was a tropical storm forecast to become a hurricane. At 10pm on Thursday 10/22/2015 this storm had become a category 5 hurricane with sustained winds of over 180mph (290 kph) On Friday morning at 5am the storm looked like this It had not only increased in size by 100's of miles, it had become the most powerful hurricane to ever make landfall in the western hemisphere. With sustained winds of over 200 mph (321 kph) and gusts over 235 mph (378 kph) a central pressure of only 892 millibars this had grown into a monster. The thing that alarms me a bit is not the strength this storm achieved. What alarms me is the amount of time it took for this storm to achieve this monster status. I did not see before nor do I see now exactly how this was possible. Yes EL Ninio is out there, and it would help a storm grow in strength, but the amount of energy needed to accomplish this rapid growth is far more than even El Ninio could provide in my opinion. The amount of energy needed to do this in such a short time frame is mind boggling. I think we may be missing a very important variable in our weather models..... Time will tell of course... but to me the growth of this storm does not compute.... something is missing in what we look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zathrus~SPARTA~ Posted October 24, 2015 Author Share Posted October 24, 2015 (edited) A report filed this morning Hurricane Patricia made landfall at 6:15 p.m. CDT near Cuixmala in the state of Jalisco, Mexico. Maximum sustained winds were 165 mph (270 kph), making Patricia the strongest landfalling hurricane ever recorded on Mexico's Pacific coastline. Patricia's winds peaked at 200 mph (325 kph) earlier Friday, and the central pressure bottomed out at 879 millibars (25.96 inches). These are the strongest winds and lowest central pressure ever recorded in a Western Hemisphere tropical cyclone. A weather station near Cuixmala, Mexico reported sustained winds to 185 mph and wind gusts to 211 mph before going offline Patricia rapidly organized and intensified from Wednesday night through early Friday. Maximum sustained winds with the storm increased 115 mph in a 24-hour window from 85 mph at 4 a.m. CDT Thursday to 200 mph at 4 a.m. CDT Friday. During that same time, the minimum central pressure of Patricia also decreased 100 millibars, from 980 millibars to 880 millibars. This places Patricia among the most rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones ever witnessed anywhere in the world since the advent of modern meteorology. This is just mind boggling to me. That in less than 24 hours a tropical system could rapidly intensify to this beast category 5 storm. Edited October 24, 2015 by Zathrus~SPARTA~ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zathrus~SPARTA~ Posted October 24, 2015 Author Share Posted October 24, 2015 `Ah!! Ok, I am being told that the water surface temps, which are normal for an El Ninio is not what provided this energy; what provided the energy was the depth of this extremely warm water. The depth of it is unprecedented and a direct result of GW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zathrus~SPARTA~ Posted October 24, 2015 Author Share Posted October 24, 2015 Really... while this unprecedented intensification is now explained... we are now left with a massive problem. It is now possible for our "Disaster Preparedness" organizations to have less than 24 hours notice of a catastrophic storm. That is not enough time to get millions of people out of harms way in places anywhere along the coast with large cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Forrester~SPARTA~ Posted October 24, 2015 Share Posted October 24, 2015 once more the Dutch will come and help.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zathrus~SPARTA~ Posted October 24, 2015 Author Share Posted October 24, 2015 once more the Dutch will come and help.... Perhaps they could..... I have seen many of the canals, dikes, locks and storm gates the Dutch have created, it is very impressive. Their experience with coastal flooding and the control of that is surpassed by no one. But even their excellent designs would likely never survive the onslaught of a category 5 hurricane packing sustained winds of 325 kph and 40 foot waves crashing onto shore. Especially a storm of that intensity that is 300 miles wide. As an engineer... we know that only a cubic yard of water, traveling at say 20 or 30mph on a wave will hit with the force of several tons upon impact with a wall. By the way, the category 5 wind field that struck the coastline of Mexico was only 10 to 15 miles wide thankfully, but the hurricane force winds (over 120 kph) extended to almost 200 miles in width. Now flooding rain will be the biggest problem however. I saw some initial pictures from an area near the coast. Part of a concrete overpass on a highway seemed to be missing...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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